In Belarus, “there will
be a campaign of civil disobedience”

Andrei Sannikov is a leading figure in Belarus’s political opposition. A former candidate to the presidency in 2010, he was jailed for two years by Alexander Lukashenko’s dictatorial regime and subjected to mistreatment. He currently lives in Warsaw. We called him on 4 August for this interview, in which he talks about the ongoing street protests and the political repression in his country, in the run up to the 9 August presidential election.  

A wave of protests is spreading across Belarus. What is different today compared to ten years ago when you led opposition rallies against Lukashenko and those demands were crushed by the regime?  

What the 2010 protest movement achieved is that we, the democratic opposition, managed to pull away the disguise the regime was trying to hide under: its pretence of adhering to reform and democratic rules, and of reaching out to the west. After those events, that pretence was gone. Take note that the IMF – which had previously extended a large loan to Belarus – then made clear no more money would be made available. Lukashenko had in fact used those funds for repression and military contracts with Russia. Compared to 2010, what’s different today is that Lukashenko is vulnerable and shaky. He’s lost support within our society. People have nicknamed him “Sasha 3%”. This time, political repression started even before the election. And make no mistake, those who are detained are subjected to torture. Serguei Tsikhanouski, Mikalai Statkevich, Pavel Severinets [opposition activists] and others face extreme conditions in detention – their basic needs are ignored. Hundreds have been arrested.

Another difference with 2010 is that the regime now says it’s identified a variety of “enemies”, a category which now includes “Russia” and new technologies. The new “enemies” are bloggers. All the initial major contenders for the presidency are now in jail. What’s been especially striking is the strong response from the population: the groundswell of support shown for Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya [she has replaced her jailed husband as a candidate, and is rallying large crowds]. People are simply expressing their hatred for Lukashenko. 

What explains it? The state of the economy and the regime’s bungled response to the Covid pandemic ?

People saw how Lukashenko had only contempt for them. In the face of the pandemic he was brutal and arrogant – using all sorts of names for people who’d died from the virus. When you trample on people’s dignity you can trigger all kinds of responses. 

Belarus is a country that has arguably suffered more, from 20th century atrocities, than any other part of Europe: a quarter of its population was killed by war, repression and deportations under both Nazi and Soviet rule. Could this profound trauma explain why democratic change has been so hard to come by, and why Lukashenko has been able to hold onto power for so long, as a semblance of stability?

It’s definitely a factor. The list of 20th century traumas is long – and not just world war two. After world war one we suffered a dispersion of our national forces, preventing us from creating our own state. This happened with the silent approval of western powers. We were not represented when the treaty of Riga was signed in 1921 – although Ukraine was. [the treaty of Riga ended the Russo-Polish war of 1919-1920. It gave Poland parts of Belorussia (now Belarus) and of Ukraine] Don’t forget also Polish policies of ethnic cleansing in Belarus during the interwar period. Then came Stalin, and the bloodshed of world war two. Our intelligentsia was all but eliminated - some of them killed in the same prison I was held in [in 2010-12, Andrei Sannikov was detained in a KGB facility in Minsk, accused of igniting mass disorder]. Don’t forget the tragedy of Chernobyl either. Although the accident happened in Ukraine, 70% of the radioactive fallout landed on our territory. 

But we also have a history of fighting against occupation. Our spirit of resistance and our fight for independence will prevail. But it’s true our 20th century legacy explains why change can take time. 

What do you expect after 9 August? It seems likely Lukashenko will claim victory in the presidential election that day. 

It’s hard to predict. He’s lost already. He’s struggling to bring out crowds that support him. Very few people attend his events, unlike those of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. He can come up with any official election results - no one will believe him. He won’t gain anything by claiming he’s won the popular vote. The economy is in a terrible state. We may face a revolt in the country. There will definitely be a campaign of civil disobedience. I don’t know at what scale, but I’m certain people won’t accept a falsification of results this time. Too many people have gotten involved. We started to see this in 2010 but now people are participating fully. Before, they’d watch more passively, waiting to see who’d come out on top, the regime or the opposition. Now Lukashenko will have no other option but to launch yet wider political repression. This will affect relations with the west, and possibly bring sanctions. 

What’s your reading of Russia’s attitude, given Putin’s aversion to anything that smacks of democratic revolutions? 

If Lukashenko is weakened then Russia may see an opportunity to seize more industrial assets in Belarus, just like it seized Beltransgaz [a natural gas infrastructure and transportation company in Belarus] after the 2010 events. That said, Russia would have nothing to gain from Lukashenko becoming unpredictable in Belarus. It ought to be in Putin’s interest to normalise relations between our peoples. I think this is currently being discussed in the Kremlin. Interestingly, Putin’s power structure has not come out in support of Lukashenko.

But surely Putin would see any democratisation in Belarus as a threat to his own autocratic system.

Yes, but Russia is not homogeneous. There are different towers in the Kremlin now. Not everyone in Russia’s power system is happy with Putin, with western sanctions, with the burden of Crimea and the Donbass. Especially among some of Russia’s very rich people. They feel they haven’t gained much from Putin’s geopolitics. 

What should Europe do? 

In 2016 the EU made a big mistake by lifting sanctions against Belarus: this meant awarding impunity to criminals. Visa bans were already a very mild measure, and now they’re all gone. There is now a new EU leadership but I don’t see any new plans. Yet repression is ongoing. There should be sanctions against those prison wardens who torture people. 

My suggestion to EU leaders, to the president of the European council, to the EU High representative, is this: travel to Minsk, stay there for a couple of days, to prevent an outbreak of violence by your very presence. Lukashenko couldn’t refuse such a visit – he’s very proud of having a legitimised relationship with the EU. It is the duty of EU leaders to be in Minsk, otherwise the situation may move in a very unfortunate direction. Members of the European Parliament, in particular from Lithuania, have been asking for sanctions. Lukashenko’s calculus was to hold these elections in the middle of August, when everyone is on vacation, so that there would be less of a reaction in Europe. Just like in 2010, when he held elections on Christmas eve.

Would you say a new generation of opposition figures is emerging - after yours? 

The opposition figures in today’s campaign are not politicians. So this isn’t, as such, a new political generation. But it’s true that protesters out on the streets represent a new generation, as do the bloggers thrown in jail. Everyone has to learn what needs to be done in such situations. Opposition leaders can try different approaches, but at the end of the day, it’s the people that matter.